November Market Update: What’s Really Happening in Real Estate Right Now

Welcome back to the channel, everyone! I’m Michael Miller, and today we’re diving into both national and local real estate trends that are shaping where the market is headed next. If you want to stay updated on prices, interest rates, buyer behavior, and housing predictions, make sure you like and subscribe—you won’t want to miss what’s coming up.

And yes, we’re just going to pretend that intro accent never happened.

Mortgage Rates: A Roller-Coaster Year With a Familiar Ending

Mortgage rates have dominated the conversation all year—and with good reason. Despite climbing and dipping along the way, we’ve somehow landed almost exactly where we started.

Here’s what’s standing out:

• Rates rose most of the year

• They’ve finally started easing

• The Fed has lowered its benchmark rate

• More reductionsmaybe on the horizon

These early shifts are promising. We may finally be stepping into a season where rates trend downward—something buyers (and frankly, all of our blood pressure levels) could use.

Ada County Snapshot: A Growing Gap Between Buyers and Sellers

Now let’s zoom into the Boise metro. The data shows the largest gapall yearbetween active listings and pending contracts.

Right now, we have roughlytwo active homes for every one buyer.

Add in:

• A record spike in canceled and expired listings

• 300 price drops in a single week

• Slow-moving buyers

• Sellers holding firm on price

And you get a strange tension—rates are moving in the right direction, but not far enough to motivate first-time buyers. Meanwhile, sellers with 3% mortgages feel no urgency to budge.

The result is a quiet standoff.

Why Buyers Aren’t Jumping In Yet

There’s a psychology to this moment:

Buyers see rates inch down and think,
“I’ll wait until they get better.”

Sellers think,
“If I can’t get my price, I’ll list again in the spring.”

And just a quick insider reminder:
In real estate, “spring” actually meansFebruary.

Right now, neither side feels rushed. Without pressure, prices remain stable and flat.

National Trends: The Appreciation Curve Reveals Stability

On a national scale, something fascinating is happening with long-term appreciation.

Homes historically appreciate at about3.5–4% per year—represented by the teal trend line.

Here's the timeline:

• Before 2008, prices rose wellabovenatural appreciation

• After the crash, prices stayedbelowtrend for nearly 15 years

• Then 2020 hit, rates dropped, and prices shot up

• By 2024, we were10% above trend

• In 2025, that gap narrowed to8% above trend

Because pricing has been flat, appreciation is slowly catching up. If pricing remains steady into 2026–2027, we could fully realign with the natural curve.

This trend is one major reason most experts—including myself—don’t expect a housing crash. Inventory hasn’t exploded. Foreclosures remain low. And buyer demand always resurfaces when affordability improves.

What This Means Looking Ahead

If rates continue to soften, buyers are going to reenter the market quickly. Homebuying hasn’t lost popularity—it’s simply waiting for affordability to meet opportunity.

Right now, we’re in a holding period, but the long-term data points to stability rather than decline.

Final Thoughts and an Invitation

To stay updated on everything happening in the Boise market and nationwide, make sure you like and subscribe—I’ve got a big announcement coming next week that you won’t want to miss.

And yes, our legendary Halloween party returns this year onSaturday, November 1st. If you want an invite, drop a comment below. I’ll make sure you’re on the list.

My costume?
Absolutely epic. Stay tuned.